Saturday Pickoff

I went 13-6-1 last week, so maybe I'm turning the corner with these picks? I'd still hold off another week before trusting me though. The Utah St game was technically played Friday night, and this is getting posted Saturday morning so you'll just have to trust me that I picked them. As always, home teams in bold.

Utah St +24
#6 Va Tech -17
#13 Iowa -21
Mich St -3
Kentucky +15.5
Miami (OH) +29
#15 Penn St -7
#18 Georgia -3
Indiana +18
Vanderbilt +9.5
#25 Ga Tech -6
#8 Oklahoma -7.5
#24 California +5
SMU +28
UTEP +15
Wash St +33.5

NFL Week 3 Picks

Unlike college football, I seem to actually know what I'm talking about when it comes to pro ball.

Straight Up
Pittsburgh
Washington
Green Bay
Minnesota
New England
Tennessee
Philadelphia
NY Giants
Baltimore
Houston
Chicago
New Orleans
Denver
San Diego
Indianapolis
Carolina

Against the Spread
Cincinnati +3.5
Detroit +6.5
Green Bay -6.5
San Fran +7
Atlanta +4.5
Tennessee +3
Philadelphia -8
NY Giants -6.5
Baltimore -13.5
Houston -3.5
Chicago -2
New Orleans -6
Denver -1.5
Miami +6
Indianapolis +2.5 (Are you serious?)
Carolina +8.5

Saturday Pickoff

Sorry for the lack of substance this week, I've been a little preoccupied with some other goings on. Plus I was trying to recover after my picks from last week when I miraculously went 5-13. I think what that means is you should take the opposite of all these picks with confidence. (Home teams are in bold)

#18 Florida St -14
Georgia Tech -2.5
#20 Kansas -20
#23 Michigan -20.5
Fresno St +16.5
Miss. St +13
#15 TCU +2.5
#11 Va Tech +2.5
#13 Ohio St -14
Oregon +5.5
Arkansas +17.5
#2 Texas -36
#1 Florida -21.5
#19 BYU -17
#25 Nebraska -27.5
#8 Boise St -17
#21 Georgia -12
Iowa +9.5
#24 Washington +7.5
#17 Houston -1
Wash St. +45.5

Notre Dame vs Sparty

A little something to remind us of the good old days.

Saturday Pickoff

Here's the Top 25 sure losers for this week:

Fresno St +7.5
East Carolina +7.5
#22 Kansas -22.5
East. Michigan +24
#8 California -14
#9 Penn St -29.5
#11 Ohio St -20.5
#4 Alabama -38
#13 Va Tech -5
Tulsa +17.5
#18 Utah +4.5
#3 USC -18.5
Tennessee +29.5
#17 Cincinnati -1
#16 Oklahoma St -32.5
LA Lafayette +27
#7 BYU -7.5
Arkansas -1
#2 Texas -17.5

Bold Teams are home

NFL Picks - Week 2

Week 2 is just around the corner, here are my picks for the week. I went 7-9 against the spread in Week 1, but 14-2 in my straight up picks (which conveniently weren't published). As always, you can follow my season long progress in the upper right corner. I've provided a link to the ESPN NFL Experts picks and show where I stand compared to the group of 10 experts.

Straight-up Picks
Carolina
Buffalo
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Minnesota
Green Bay
Tennessee
Kansas City
NY Jets
New Orleans
Baltimore
San Francisco
Washington
Jacksonville
Indianapolis

Against the Spread
Carolina +6
Buffalo -5
Chicago +3
Dallas -3
Denver -3
Detroit +10
Cincinnati +9
Tennessee -6.5
Kansas City -3
NY Jets +3.5
New Orleans Pick 'em
Baltimore +3
San Francisco -1.5
Washington -9.5
Jacksonville -3
Indianapolis -3

A Notre Dame - Michigan retrospective

It's been 4 days since Notre Dame's crushing loss in Ann Arbor, and I think I'm finally rational enough to comment on what transpired. The saving grace that I'm taking away is that for the first time since the USC game in Weis' first year, the Irish actually looked like the better team on the field in a loss. I don't know if that should be taken as a positive or negative, but it's something. Key topics that I took away:

1) Michigan Offense - Tate Forcier deserved all the undeserved praise that has been heaped on Matt Barkley during the past few days. Judging by the articles written in the national media, you'd think Barkley was the next coming of Tim Tebow. His final line in that OSU game, 15-31, 195 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT. Forcier on the other hand went 23-33, 240 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT; plus 70 yds and 1 TD rushing. I'm not trying to claim that the ND and OSU defenses are similar, but I watched both games and Forcier looked 10 times better than Barkley. For a kid making his second start he looked every bit the perfect fit for the spread offense. This is also the trend everywhere Rich Rod coaches. The first season is a borderline disaster, and the second turns into an 8 or 9 win season. I think that's exactly what we're going to witness this year.

Get used to seeing this for a while

2) Notre Dame Defense - Ok, I just heaped some praise on Forcier, but no good defense would allow a 19 year old QB, making his second career start, put up those kinds of numbers. We were put under the impression at the beginning of the game that freshman LB sensation Manti Te'o would be playing a significant number of snaps. I remember seeing him on the first series and last series and that's about it. Did he blow an assignment somewhere early in the game and got benched as a result? Could he have made a difference on the Forcier 35 yard, 4th down TD?

Secondly, I'll be the first to admit that I never played organized football, and as a result I sometimes miss schemes and coverages. The extent of my knowledge in this area has been taken from Madden football. With that said, I never noticed the ND defense employing a Spy on Forcier at any point in the game. I'm no D coordinator, but wouldn't it stand to reason that if a QB if consistently scrambling out of the pocket away from blitzes, maybe you should call off one of those rushers and hold him back as a spy for when the QB breaks containment? Just a thought.

John Tenuta, maybe give this a try next time

3) Notre Dame play calling - Charlie Weis has a well deserved reputation for being a very good offensive play caller. The problem is that sometimes he out thinks himself. I didn't agree with the long pass play on 2nd and 10 with just over two minutes left. This allowed Michigan to keep a timeout after the pass was incomplete. Armando Allen had been running roughshod the entire afternoon, setting a career high for rushing yards. After the run by Hughes was stuffed on 1st down, give Allen a chance on second. At worst you get stuffed again and Michigan has to burn another timeout.

The play on 3rd and 10 was born out of necessity because of the failure on 2nd down. It was a good play, but the timing between Clausen and the freshman receiver was just slightly off. If that's Michael Floyd, or even Golden Tate, the Irish have a first down. Which begs the question, why throw it to the freshman receiver? I realize Floyd was out because of a severe cut suffered on the previous series, but Tate was still in the game.

4) Notre Dame Offense - The offense racked up 490 yards with half of a 41 yard TD negated for stepping out of bounds and a 76 yard pass called back because of a penalty. More on those later. With that being said, the offense still only registered 31 points. The first two drives of the game took up the majority of the field, but resulted in only 3 points. Several passes by Clausen in the end zone were thrown out of bounds throughout the game. No one in the Michigan secondary could cover Michael Floyd the entire game. All Jimmy needs to do is put these throws in the field of play and there's no way Floyd doesn't come up with the ball, or at worst draw a pass interference penalty. Where was Kyle Rudolph all game?

5) Officiating - The classic excuse of a losing team is to blame the officials. I've hopefully pointed out enough reasons why Notre Dame didn't win this game. It's my opinion that Michigan never should have been in this game in the first place. Notre Dame's play on the field allowed the Wolverines to hang around and eventually win. With that said, this was another in a long line of horrific efforts by Big Ten officiating crews. There were several questionable decisions that stand out in my mind.

a) The aforementioned negated TD by Armando Allen. Anyone who has watched a football game once in the past 5 years knows the phrase "Indisputable evidence." I don't know what replay the officials were watching, but there was anything but indisputable evidence that Allen stepped out of bounds. The play was called a TD on the field, with not one, but TWO, officials standing right on top of the play. One ahead and one behind Allen as he ran down the line. ND ended up with a FG on this drive.

Apparently this passes for "indisputable evidence" in the Big Ten

b) The aforementioned 76 yard pass reception by Kyle Rudolph that was called back because of a hold. Now, holding could probably be called on just about every play if the officials wanted to. Sam Young got called for holding on this play after he pancaked a DL that was already falling over following a chip block from the TE. Horrendous call. The play would have taken ND inside the Michigan 20 yard line. This drive ultimately resulted in a punt.

c) An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for taunting against Armando Allen after holding his finger to his mouth, to quiet the crowd. Has this move ever been called taunting anywhere? Note again, this was not done in the face, or even the general vicinity, of any opposing players. So who exactly is being taunted? The penalty forced ND to kickoff from the 15. Although Michigan failed to directly score on the ensuing possession; following an exchange of punts, the Wolverines started the game winning drive from their own 45 yard line.

Shushing the crowd is taunting, but this isn't unsportsmanlike conduct

d) A delay of game got called on the Irish offense when there was STILL 1 SECOND ON THE PLAY CLOCK! The ball was snapped as the play clock ticked from 2 to 1. Apparently this was too late for the back judge who called the penalty.

Clausen not moving fast enough for officials

e) The debacle that was the end of the game. Michigan kicks off with 11 seconds left and the ball rolls through the endzone, but somehow a second ticks off the clock. After Clausen pointed this out the officials they declared that the ND return man had touched the ball as it bounced past him and through the end zone. I couldn't tell if it did or not, we'll assume it did. In that case, ND should take possession with 10 seconds on the clock. However, when the Irish were snapping the ball, another second had mysteriously ticked off the clock. Where did it go? The officials never reviewed the play or told the timekeeper to take another second off the clock. Even Matt Millen in the broadcast booth was confused. If that second doesn't disappear, the offense gets another play from midfield because Tate was taken down with 1 second remaining. With a future pro in 6'3" Michael Floyd, ND would have a better than normal chance at hauling in one of these last gasp pass attempts.

Charlie Weis addresses officiating from Mich game