Unlike college football, I seem to actually know what I'm talking about when it comes to pro ball.
Straight Up
Pittsburgh
Washington
Green Bay
Minnesota
New England
Tennessee
Philadelphia
NY Giants
Baltimore
Houston
Chicago
New Orleans
Denver
San Diego
Indianapolis
Carolina
Against the Spread
Cincinnati +3.5
Detroit +6.5
Green Bay -6.5
San Fran +7
Atlanta +4.5
Tennessee +3
Philadelphia -8
NY Giants -6.5
Baltimore -13.5
Houston -3.5
Chicago -2
New Orleans -6
Denver -1.5
Miami +6
Indianapolis +2.5 (Are you serious?)
Carolina +8.5
Friday, September 25, 2009
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Saturday Pickoff
Sorry for the lack of substance this week, I've been a little preoccupied with some other goings on. Plus I was trying to recover after my picks from last week when I miraculously went 5-13. I think what that means is you should take the opposite of all these picks with confidence. (Home teams are in bold)
#18 Florida St -14
Georgia Tech -2.5
#20 Kansas -20
#23 Michigan -20.5
Fresno St +16.5
Miss. St +13
#15 TCU +2.5
#11 Va Tech +2.5
#13 Ohio St -14
Oregon +5.5
Arkansas +17.5
#2 Texas -36
#1 Florida -21.5
#19 BYU -17
#25 Nebraska -27.5
#8 Boise St -17
#21 Georgia -12
Iowa +9.5
#24 Washington +7.5
#17 Houston -1
Wash St. +45.5
#18 Florida St -14
Georgia Tech -2.5
#20 Kansas -20
#23 Michigan -20.5
Fresno St +16.5
Miss. St +13
#15 TCU +2.5
#11 Va Tech +2.5
#13 Ohio St -14
Oregon +5.5
Arkansas +17.5
#2 Texas -36
#1 Florida -21.5
#19 BYU -17
#25 Nebraska -27.5
#8 Boise St -17
#21 Georgia -12
Iowa +9.5
#24 Washington +7.5
#17 Houston -1
Wash St. +45.5
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Friday, September 18, 2009
Saturday Pickoff
Here's the Top 25 sure losers for this week:
Fresno St +7.5
East Carolina +7.5
#22 Kansas -22.5
East. Michigan +24
#8 California -14
#9 Penn St -29.5
#11 Ohio St -20.5
#4 Alabama -38
#13 Va Tech -5
Tulsa +17.5
#18 Utah +4.5
#3 USC -18.5
Tennessee +29.5
#17 Cincinnati -1
#16 Oklahoma St -32.5
LA Lafayette +27
#7 BYU -7.5
Arkansas -1
#2 Texas -17.5
Bold Teams are home
Fresno St +7.5
East Carolina +7.5
#22 Kansas -22.5
East. Michigan +24
#8 California -14
#9 Penn St -29.5
#11 Ohio St -20.5
#4 Alabama -38
#13 Va Tech -5
Tulsa +17.5
#18 Utah +4.5
#3 USC -18.5
Tennessee +29.5
#17 Cincinnati -1
#16 Oklahoma St -32.5
LA Lafayette +27
#7 BYU -7.5
Arkansas -1
#2 Texas -17.5
Bold Teams are home
Thursday, September 17, 2009
NFL Picks - Week 2
Week 2 is just around the corner, here are my picks for the week. I went 7-9 against the spread in Week 1, but 14-2 in my straight up picks (which conveniently weren't published). As always, you can follow my season long progress in the upper right corner. I've provided a link to the ESPN NFL Experts picks and show where I stand compared to the group of 10 experts.
Straight-up Picks
Carolina
Buffalo
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Minnesota
Green Bay
Tennessee
Kansas City
NY Jets
New Orleans
Baltimore
San Francisco
Washington
Jacksonville
Indianapolis
Against the Spread
Carolina +6
Buffalo -5
Chicago +3
Dallas -3
Denver -3
Detroit +10
Cincinnati +9
Tennessee -6.5
Kansas City -3
NY Jets +3.5
New Orleans Pick 'em
Baltimore +3
San Francisco -1.5
Washington -9.5
Jacksonville -3
Indianapolis -3
Straight-up Picks
Carolina
Buffalo
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Minnesota
Green Bay
Tennessee
Kansas City
NY Jets
New Orleans
Baltimore
San Francisco
Washington
Jacksonville
Indianapolis
Against the Spread
Carolina +6
Buffalo -5
Chicago +3
Dallas -3
Denver -3
Detroit +10
Cincinnati +9
Tennessee -6.5
Kansas City -3
NY Jets +3.5
New Orleans Pick 'em
Baltimore +3
San Francisco -1.5
Washington -9.5
Jacksonville -3
Indianapolis -3
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
A Notre Dame - Michigan retrospective
It's been 4 days since Notre Dame's crushing loss in Ann Arbor, and I think I'm finally rational enough to comment on what transpired. The saving grace that I'm taking away is that for the first time since the USC game in Weis' first year, the Irish actually looked like the better team on the field in a loss. I don't know if that should be taken as a positive or negative, but it's something. Key topics that I took away:
1) Michigan Offense - Tate Forcier deserved all the undeserved praise that has been heaped on Matt Barkley during the past few days. Judging by the articles written in the national media, you'd think Barkley was the next coming of Tim Tebow. His final line in that OSU game, 15-31, 195 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT. Forcier on the other hand went 23-33, 240 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT; plus 70 yds and 1 TD rushing. I'm not trying to claim that the ND and OSU defenses are similar, but I watched both games and Forcier looked 10 times better than Barkley. For a kid making his second start he looked every bit the perfect fit for the spread offense. This is also the trend everywhere Rich Rod coaches. The first season is a borderline disaster, and the second turns into an 8 or 9 win season. I think that's exactly what we're going to witness this year.
Get used to seeing this for a while
2) Notre Dame Defense - Ok, I just heaped some praise on Forcier, but no good defense would allow a 19 year old QB, making his second career start, put up those kinds of numbers. We were put under the impression at the beginning of the game that freshman LB sensation Manti Te'o would be playing a significant number of snaps. I remember seeing him on the first series and last series and that's about it. Did he blow an assignment somewhere early in the game and got benched as a result? Could he have made a difference on the Forcier 35 yard, 4th down TD?
Secondly, I'll be the first to admit that I never played organized football, and as a result I sometimes miss schemes and coverages. The extent of my knowledge in this area has been taken from Madden football. With that said, I never noticed the ND defense employing a Spy on Forcier at any point in the game. I'm no D coordinator, but wouldn't it stand to reason that if a QB if consistently scrambling out of the pocket away from blitzes, maybe you should call off one of those rushers and hold him back as a spy for when the QB breaks containment? Just a thought.
John Tenuta, maybe give this a try next time
3) Notre Dame play calling - Charlie Weis has a well deserved reputation for being a very good offensive play caller. The problem is that sometimes he out thinks himself. I didn't agree with the long pass play on 2nd and 10 with just over two minutes left. This allowed Michigan to keep a timeout after the pass was incomplete. Armando Allen had been running roughshod the entire afternoon, setting a career high for rushing yards. After the run by Hughes was stuffed on 1st down, give Allen a chance on second. At worst you get stuffed again and Michigan has to burn another timeout.
The play on 3rd and 10 was born out of necessity because of the failure on 2nd down. It was a good play, but the timing between Clausen and the freshman receiver was just slightly off. If that's Michael Floyd, or even Golden Tate, the Irish have a first down. Which begs the question, why throw it to the freshman receiver? I realize Floyd was out because of a severe cut suffered on the previous series, but Tate was still in the game.
4) Notre Dame Offense - The offense racked up 490 yards with half of a 41 yard TD negated for stepping out of bounds and a 76 yard pass called back because of a penalty. More on those later. With that being said, the offense still only registered 31 points. The first two drives of the game took up the majority of the field, but resulted in only 3 points. Several passes by Clausen in the end zone were thrown out of bounds throughout the game. No one in the Michigan secondary could cover Michael Floyd the entire game. All Jimmy needs to do is put these throws in the field of play and there's no way Floyd doesn't come up with the ball, or at worst draw a pass interference penalty. Where was Kyle Rudolph all game?
5) Officiating - The classic excuse of a losing team is to blame the officials. I've hopefully pointed out enough reasons why Notre Dame didn't win this game. It's my opinion that Michigan never should have been in this game in the first place. Notre Dame's play on the field allowed the Wolverines to hang around and eventually win. With that said, this was another in a long line of horrific efforts by Big Ten officiating crews. There were several questionable decisions that stand out in my mind.
a) The aforementioned negated TD by Armando Allen. Anyone who has watched a football game once in the past 5 years knows the phrase "Indisputable evidence." I don't know what replay the officials were watching, but there was anything but indisputable evidence that Allen stepped out of bounds. The play was called a TD on the field, with not one, but TWO, officials standing right on top of the play. One ahead and one behind Allen as he ran down the line. ND ended up with a FG on this drive.
Apparently this passes for "indisputable evidence" in the Big Ten
b) The aforementioned 76 yard pass reception by Kyle Rudolph that was called back because of a hold. Now, holding could probably be called on just about every play if the officials wanted to. Sam Young got called for holding on this play after he pancaked a DL that was already falling over following a chip block from the TE. Horrendous call. The play would have taken ND inside the Michigan 20 yard line. This drive ultimately resulted in a punt.
c) An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for taunting against Armando Allen after holding his finger to his mouth, to quiet the crowd. Has this move ever been called taunting anywhere? Note again, this was not done in the face, or even the general vicinity, of any opposing players. So who exactly is being taunted? The penalty forced ND to kickoff from the 15. Although Michigan failed to directly score on the ensuing possession; following an exchange of punts, the Wolverines started the game winning drive from their own 45 yard line.
d) A delay of game got called on the Irish offense when there was STILL 1 SECOND ON THE PLAY CLOCK! The ball was snapped as the play clock ticked from 2 to 1. Apparently this was too late for the back judge who called the penalty.
e) The debacle that was the end of the game. Michigan kicks off with 11 seconds left and the ball rolls through the endzone, but somehow a second ticks off the clock. After Clausen pointed this out the officials they declared that the ND return man had touched the ball as it bounced past him and through the end zone. I couldn't tell if it did or not, we'll assume it did. In that case, ND should take possession with 10 seconds on the clock. However, when the Irish were snapping the ball, another second had mysteriously ticked off the clock. Where did it go? The officials never reviewed the play or told the timekeeper to take another second off the clock. Even Matt Millen in the broadcast booth was confused. If that second doesn't disappear, the offense gets another play from midfield because Tate was taken down with 1 second remaining. With a future pro in 6'3" Michael Floyd, ND would have a better than normal chance at hauling in one of these last gasp pass attempts.
Charlie Weis addresses officiating from Mich game
1) Michigan Offense - Tate Forcier deserved all the undeserved praise that has been heaped on Matt Barkley during the past few days. Judging by the articles written in the national media, you'd think Barkley was the next coming of Tim Tebow. His final line in that OSU game, 15-31, 195 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT. Forcier on the other hand went 23-33, 240 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT; plus 70 yds and 1 TD rushing. I'm not trying to claim that the ND and OSU defenses are similar, but I watched both games and Forcier looked 10 times better than Barkley. For a kid making his second start he looked every bit the perfect fit for the spread offense. This is also the trend everywhere Rich Rod coaches. The first season is a borderline disaster, and the second turns into an 8 or 9 win season. I think that's exactly what we're going to witness this year.
Get used to seeing this for a whileSecondly, I'll be the first to admit that I never played organized football, and as a result I sometimes miss schemes and coverages. The extent of my knowledge in this area has been taken from Madden football. With that said, I never noticed the ND defense employing a Spy on Forcier at any point in the game. I'm no D coordinator, but wouldn't it stand to reason that if a QB if consistently scrambling out of the pocket away from blitzes, maybe you should call off one of those rushers and hold him back as a spy for when the QB breaks containment? Just a thought.
John Tenuta, maybe give this a try next time3) Notre Dame play calling - Charlie Weis has a well deserved reputation for being a very good offensive play caller. The problem is that sometimes he out thinks himself. I didn't agree with the long pass play on 2nd and 10 with just over two minutes left. This allowed Michigan to keep a timeout after the pass was incomplete. Armando Allen had been running roughshod the entire afternoon, setting a career high for rushing yards. After the run by Hughes was stuffed on 1st down, give Allen a chance on second. At worst you get stuffed again and Michigan has to burn another timeout.
The play on 3rd and 10 was born out of necessity because of the failure on 2nd down. It was a good play, but the timing between Clausen and the freshman receiver was just slightly off. If that's Michael Floyd, or even Golden Tate, the Irish have a first down. Which begs the question, why throw it to the freshman receiver? I realize Floyd was out because of a severe cut suffered on the previous series, but Tate was still in the game.
4) Notre Dame Offense - The offense racked up 490 yards with half of a 41 yard TD negated for stepping out of bounds and a 76 yard pass called back because of a penalty. More on those later. With that being said, the offense still only registered 31 points. The first two drives of the game took up the majority of the field, but resulted in only 3 points. Several passes by Clausen in the end zone were thrown out of bounds throughout the game. No one in the Michigan secondary could cover Michael Floyd the entire game. All Jimmy needs to do is put these throws in the field of play and there's no way Floyd doesn't come up with the ball, or at worst draw a pass interference penalty. Where was Kyle Rudolph all game?
5) Officiating - The classic excuse of a losing team is to blame the officials. I've hopefully pointed out enough reasons why Notre Dame didn't win this game. It's my opinion that Michigan never should have been in this game in the first place. Notre Dame's play on the field allowed the Wolverines to hang around and eventually win. With that said, this was another in a long line of horrific efforts by Big Ten officiating crews. There were several questionable decisions that stand out in my mind.
a) The aforementioned negated TD by Armando Allen. Anyone who has watched a football game once in the past 5 years knows the phrase "Indisputable evidence." I don't know what replay the officials were watching, but there was anything but indisputable evidence that Allen stepped out of bounds. The play was called a TD on the field, with not one, but TWO, officials standing right on top of the play. One ahead and one behind Allen as he ran down the line. ND ended up with a FG on this drive.
Apparently this passes for "indisputable evidence" in the Big Tenb) The aforementioned 76 yard pass reception by Kyle Rudolph that was called back because of a hold. Now, holding could probably be called on just about every play if the officials wanted to. Sam Young got called for holding on this play after he pancaked a DL that was already falling over following a chip block from the TE. Horrendous call. The play would have taken ND inside the Michigan 20 yard line. This drive ultimately resulted in a punt.
c) An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for taunting against Armando Allen after holding his finger to his mouth, to quiet the crowd. Has this move ever been called taunting anywhere? Note again, this was not done in the face, or even the general vicinity, of any opposing players. So who exactly is being taunted? The penalty forced ND to kickoff from the 15. Although Michigan failed to directly score on the ensuing possession; following an exchange of punts, the Wolverines started the game winning drive from their own 45 yard line.
Shushing the crowd is taunting, but this isn't unsportsmanlike conduct
d) A delay of game got called on the Irish offense when there was STILL 1 SECOND ON THE PLAY CLOCK! The ball was snapped as the play clock ticked from 2 to 1. Apparently this was too late for the back judge who called the penalty.
Clausen not moving fast enough for officials
e) The debacle that was the end of the game. Michigan kicks off with 11 seconds left and the ball rolls through the endzone, but somehow a second ticks off the clock. After Clausen pointed this out the officials they declared that the ND return man had touched the ball as it bounced past him and through the end zone. I couldn't tell if it did or not, we'll assume it did. In that case, ND should take possession with 10 seconds on the clock. However, when the Irish were snapping the ball, another second had mysteriously ticked off the clock. Where did it go? The officials never reviewed the play or told the timekeeper to take another second off the clock. Even Matt Millen in the broadcast booth was confused. If that second doesn't disappear, the offense gets another play from midfield because Tate was taken down with 1 second remaining. With a future pro in 6'3" Michael Floyd, ND would have a better than normal chance at hauling in one of these last gasp pass attempts.
Charlie Weis addresses officiating from Mich game
Friday, September 11, 2009
Saturday Pickoff
Week 2 Top 25 College Picks
Syracuse (+29) at #7 PSU
#19 UNC (-4.5) at UConn
#1 Florida (-36) vs Troy
#14 Va. Tech (-19) vs Marshall
#22 Nebraska (-22) vs Arkansas St
#16 TCU (-11) at Virginia
Houston (+15.5) at #5 Okie St
#18 Notre Dame (-3) at Michigan
#2 Texas (-33.5) at Wyoming
Tulane (+17.5) vs #9 BYU
#25 Missouri (-20) vs Bowling Green
South Carolina (+7) at #21 Georgia
Fl. International (+33.5) vs #4 Alabama
Vanderbilt (+14.5) at #11 LSU
UTEP (+12.5) vs #24 Kansas
#3 USC (-7) at #8 Ohio St
Miami (Oh) (+37) at #12 Boise St
#17 Utah (-13.5) at San Jose St
Syracuse (+29) at #7 PSU
#19 UNC (-4.5) at UConn
#1 Florida (-36) vs Troy
#14 Va. Tech (-19) vs Marshall
#22 Nebraska (-22) vs Arkansas St
#16 TCU (-11) at Virginia
Houston (+15.5) at #5 Okie St
#18 Notre Dame (-3) at Michigan
#2 Texas (-33.5) at Wyoming
Tulane (+17.5) vs #9 BYU
#25 Missouri (-20) vs Bowling Green
South Carolina (+7) at #21 Georgia
Fl. International (+33.5) vs #4 Alabama
Vanderbilt (+14.5) at #11 LSU
UTEP (+12.5) vs #24 Kansas
#3 USC (-7) at #8 Ohio St
Miami (Oh) (+37) at #12 Boise St
#17 Utah (-13.5) at San Jose St
NFL Award Predictions
As promised yesterday, I'm back this morning to put up my award predictions for the NFL season. Every analyst on tv and internet is doing it, so why not me? Unlike all those people though, at the end of the season I'll revisit these predictions and grade myself. It'll be great when I can point out to all 3 of my readers "See, I told you so!"
MVP - Philip Rivers - As I detailed in my team preview, the Chargers can sleepwalk to 12 wins. Rivers had the best QB rating in the league last year, and has the exact same career QB rating as that fella chucking the ball in New England. The only thing holding him back has been team success. Granted, Norv Turner is still the coach, so falling short of expectations is a very real possibility for this Chargers team. I expect LaDainian Tomlinson to have a rebound year, but he won't be the same RB from 2-3 years ago. As a result, Rivers will be the ring leader of the offense for a team that should run away with the division.
Coach of the Year - Lovie Smith - The headmaster in Chicago is taking over the defensive playcalling this year for the first time since coming to the Windy City. With Bob Babich coordinating the defense the past two years, the Bears D has been medicocre at best. I think we can safely say that firing Ron Rivera two years ago after the Super Bowl and going with a guy who had 0 years of experience coordinating defense at any level was a failed experiment. While Babich may retain the title of coordinator, make no mistake that Lovie is the one running this unit. Expect a big turnaround. Couple that with an offense that appears to finally be capable of making some plays and a successful season is almost a given.
Offensive POY - Drew Brees - Referring back to the team preview again, I made the claim that Drew Brees will break Dan Marino's season passing yardage record of 5,084 yards set in 1984. If that actually happens, how does he not win Offensive POY? I can't make a bold prediction like that and then back off. I really believe this New Orleans offense is going to be one of the best ever, and the whole system runs through Brees. This will be the 4th season he's operated in Sean Payton's offense and it will be running like a well oiled machine.
Defensive POY - DeMarcus Ware - Full disclosure, I was going to choose Troy Polamalu for this position, but after seeing him crumple under that pile and finding out he will be out 3-6 weeks, I can't pick him for a season award. As a result, I'm going out on a limb, like two-thirds of the other experts, and choosing the guy who had 19.5 sacks last year. There's nothing I can say that you can't read anywhere else so I'm moving along.
Offensive Rookie - Percy Harvin - Everything I hear about Harvin is that the Vikings kept him under wraps for the entire preseason, not wanting to tip their hand too much about how he's going to be used. This guy is going to line up all over the field on offense, and will occaisionally be returning punts and kicks. Too many people are being blinded by how well Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco did last year and picking Mark Sanchez as the rookie of the year. Those guys were the first rookie QBs to be competent since Dan Marino. I don't see lightning striking again this year. Harvin will give the Vikings something that no other team can replicate in practice during the week, and it will show up on the field on Sundays.
Defensive Rookie - Brian Orakpo - This choice is partially influenced by Madden 2010, in which Orakpo is listed as an 74 rated OLB. However, as I noticed once I moved him to DE, his rating jumps up to 85. Having Haynesworth in the middle of that D line requiring a double team will allow the other players alongside him to go one-on-one. Orakpo was a force for a Texas team that I thought was the best in the country last year (and will be this year as well). I trust that Greg Blache will dial up some schemes that will move Orakpo around and put him in different positions as a down lineman and a stand up rusher; similar to how the Cowboys use DeMarcus Ware. I think Orakpo gets in the neighborhood of 10 sacks.
MVP - Philip Rivers - As I detailed in my team preview, the Chargers can sleepwalk to 12 wins. Rivers had the best QB rating in the league last year, and has the exact same career QB rating as that fella chucking the ball in New England. The only thing holding him back has been team success. Granted, Norv Turner is still the coach, so falling short of expectations is a very real possibility for this Chargers team. I expect LaDainian Tomlinson to have a rebound year, but he won't be the same RB from 2-3 years ago. As a result, Rivers will be the ring leader of the offense for a team that should run away with the division.
Coach of the Year - Lovie Smith - The headmaster in Chicago is taking over the defensive playcalling this year for the first time since coming to the Windy City. With Bob Babich coordinating the defense the past two years, the Bears D has been medicocre at best. I think we can safely say that firing Ron Rivera two years ago after the Super Bowl and going with a guy who had 0 years of experience coordinating defense at any level was a failed experiment. While Babich may retain the title of coordinator, make no mistake that Lovie is the one running this unit. Expect a big turnaround. Couple that with an offense that appears to finally be capable of making some plays and a successful season is almost a given.
Offensive POY - Drew Brees - Referring back to the team preview again, I made the claim that Drew Brees will break Dan Marino's season passing yardage record of 5,084 yards set in 1984. If that actually happens, how does he not win Offensive POY? I can't make a bold prediction like that and then back off. I really believe this New Orleans offense is going to be one of the best ever, and the whole system runs through Brees. This will be the 4th season he's operated in Sean Payton's offense and it will be running like a well oiled machine.
Defensive POY - DeMarcus Ware - Full disclosure, I was going to choose Troy Polamalu for this position, but after seeing him crumple under that pile and finding out he will be out 3-6 weeks, I can't pick him for a season award. As a result, I'm going out on a limb, like two-thirds of the other experts, and choosing the guy who had 19.5 sacks last year. There's nothing I can say that you can't read anywhere else so I'm moving along.
Offensive Rookie - Percy Harvin - Everything I hear about Harvin is that the Vikings kept him under wraps for the entire preseason, not wanting to tip their hand too much about how he's going to be used. This guy is going to line up all over the field on offense, and will occaisionally be returning punts and kicks. Too many people are being blinded by how well Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco did last year and picking Mark Sanchez as the rookie of the year. Those guys were the first rookie QBs to be competent since Dan Marino. I don't see lightning striking again this year. Harvin will give the Vikings something that no other team can replicate in practice during the week, and it will show up on the field on Sundays.
Defensive Rookie - Brian Orakpo - This choice is partially influenced by Madden 2010, in which Orakpo is listed as an 74 rated OLB. However, as I noticed once I moved him to DE, his rating jumps up to 85. Having Haynesworth in the middle of that D line requiring a double team will allow the other players alongside him to go one-on-one. Orakpo was a force for a Texas team that I thought was the best in the country last year (and will be this year as well). I trust that Greg Blache will dial up some schemes that will move Orakpo around and put him in different positions as a down lineman and a stand up rusher; similar to how the Cowboys use DeMarcus Ware. I think Orakpo gets in the neighborhood of 10 sacks.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
NFL SEASON IS HERE !!!1!!!11!!!
Alright, got to make sure my NFL picks are in before kickoff in about 2 hours.
Pittsburgh -6.5
Miami +4
Cincinnati -4
Minnesota -4
Indianapolis -7
Detroit +13
NY Jest +4.5
Dallas -6
Philadelphia -2.5
Baltimore -13
Washington +6.5
San Fran +6.5
St. Louis +8.5
Chicago +3.5
New England -10.5
San Diego -9
Lengthy post with NFL award predictions will be up tomorrow. In the mean time, NFL FOOTBALL TONIGHT!!!!!!1!
Pittsburgh -6.5
Miami +4
Cincinnati -4
Minnesota -4
Indianapolis -7
Detroit +13
NY Jest +4.5
Dallas -6
Philadelphia -2.5
Baltimore -13
Washington +6.5
San Fran +6.5
St. Louis +8.5
Chicago +3.5
New England -10.5
San Diego -9
Lengthy post with NFL award predictions will be up tomorrow. In the mean time, NFL FOOTBALL TONIGHT!!!!!!1!
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Putting up a San Francisco
It appears as though I got off to a slow start in the college season, going 4-9 against the spread for the Top 25 games this week. I failed to include the Utah-Utah St game, and FSU-Miami games in my predictions, so I'll assume a 2-0 pick there. (In fairness I did mention to a friend to take the 5.5 points Miami was getting last night). So, where did I go wrong:
Wins:
Boise St (-3) - Oregon looked terrible, not even getting a 1st down until midway through the third quarter.
Okie St (-5.5) - Georgia showed the offensive aptitude that I expected, and Oklahoma State looked like they could seriously challenge for the national title.
USC (-33) - Like San Jose St had a chance
BYU (+22) - BYU looked like they were going to cover even before Bradford got hurt, but once that AC joint got sprained it was smooth sailing.
Losses:
Ohio St (-21.5) - Maybe now people will start getting a little quieter about what creampuffs the service acadmies are. Probably not though.
Penn St (-27) - Still not sure how I lost this one. PSU is up 31-0 at the half, having given up only 8 yards of offense, and then they don't score again the rest of the game.
Nevada (+14.5) - I needed ND to show me something before I started giving up two touchdowns. They showed me a lot.
FAU (+22.5) - Whatever
Texas (-42) - They only won by 39.
Va Tech (+6.5) - I got thrown off when I saw the game was "at" VT, because in reality it was a neutral site game in Atlanta. Which meant it was practically a home game for Alabama. And it showed.
Maryland (+21) - I usually like Friedgen teams as big underdogs, but that didn't work out so well this week. Jahvid Best showed why many think he's the best back in the country.
LSU (-17.5) - The Huskies showed some fight under new coach Steve Sarkisian. If I was Les Miles I'd be a little worried about my defense.
Memphis (+17) - This was looking like a win until Ole Miss exploded for 28 in the fourth quarter.
Hopefully I learned some things this week and next week's effort will be an improvement. It certainly can't get much worse.
Wins:
Boise St (-3) - Oregon looked terrible, not even getting a 1st down until midway through the third quarter.
Okie St (-5.5) - Georgia showed the offensive aptitude that I expected, and Oklahoma State looked like they could seriously challenge for the national title.
USC (-33) - Like San Jose St had a chance
BYU (+22) - BYU looked like they were going to cover even before Bradford got hurt, but once that AC joint got sprained it was smooth sailing.
Losses:
Ohio St (-21.5) - Maybe now people will start getting a little quieter about what creampuffs the service acadmies are. Probably not though.
Penn St (-27) - Still not sure how I lost this one. PSU is up 31-0 at the half, having given up only 8 yards of offense, and then they don't score again the rest of the game.
Nevada (+14.5) - I needed ND to show me something before I started giving up two touchdowns. They showed me a lot.
FAU (+22.5) - Whatever
Texas (-42) - They only won by 39.
Va Tech (+6.5) - I got thrown off when I saw the game was "at" VT, because in reality it was a neutral site game in Atlanta. Which meant it was practically a home game for Alabama. And it showed.
Maryland (+21) - I usually like Friedgen teams as big underdogs, but that didn't work out so well this week. Jahvid Best showed why many think he's the best back in the country.
LSU (-17.5) - The Huskies showed some fight under new coach Steve Sarkisian. If I was Les Miles I'd be a little worried about my defense.
Memphis (+17) - This was looking like a win until Ole Miss exploded for 28 in the fourth quarter.
Hopefully I learned some things this week and next week's effort will be an improvement. It certainly can't get much worse.
Links 9/8/09
- The Soldier Field playing surface is one of the worst in the league, and the players are starting to speak up. The fact that the stadium is owned by the park district as opposed to the franchise certainly causes enough confusion, but it appears the grounds crew isn't helping matters.
- Speaking of ownership, the McCaskey's don't fare very well in Michael Silver's annual NFL ownership rankings. Part 1 (17-32) and Part 2 (1-16).
- It took until Monday night, but there was finally a well played football game this weekend. SI.com
- Steve Stricker continues to be the best golfer that no one knows about, finishing birdie-birdie to win the Deutsche Bank this weekend. Too bad he couldn't win at any of the majors when I bet on him at 35-1 odds. Golf.com
- Could you imagine seeing this while you wait in line for the bathroom?
Friday, September 4, 2009
Let's Do This
Headed off to South Bend to watch the Notre Dame home opener. Time to wake up the echoes.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Saturday Pickoff
Every week I'm going to pick all the Top 25 games against the spread. Week 1 is starting in a matter of hours, so no pithy explanations are provided.
#14 Boise St (-3) (vs. #16 Oregon)
#6 Ohio St (-21.5) (vs. Navy)
#9 Penn St (-27) (vs. Akron)
#9 Okie St (-5) (vs. #13 Georgia)
#4 USC (-33) (vs. San Jose St.)
Nevada (+14.5) (@ Notre Dame)
FAU (+22.5) (@ #24 Nebraska)
#20 BYU (+22) (@ #3 Oklahoma)
#2 Texas (-42) (vs. LA Monroe)
#7 Va Tech (+6.5) (vs. #5 Alabama)
Maryland (+21) (@ #12 California)
#11 LSU (-17.5) (@ Washington)
Memphis (+17) (vs. #8 Ole Miss)
#14 Boise St (-3) (vs. #16 Oregon)
#6 Ohio St (-21.5) (vs. Navy)
#9 Penn St (-27) (vs. Akron)
#9 Okie St (-5) (vs. #13 Georgia)
#4 USC (-33) (vs. San Jose St.)
Nevada (+14.5) (@ Notre Dame)
FAU (+22.5) (@ #24 Nebraska)
#20 BYU (+22) (@ #3 Oklahoma)
#2 Texas (-42) (vs. LA Monroe)
#7 Va Tech (+6.5) (vs. #5 Alabama)
Maryland (+21) (@ #12 California)
#11 LSU (-17.5) (@ Washington)
Memphis (+17) (vs. #8 Ole Miss)
Fantasy Football League #1
Had the draft for the league with my college friends last night; a league we've been running since 2000, when we manually tabulated stats in an Excel spreadsheet. My how the world has changed in the last decade. I've done pretty well the last few years. 2 playoff appearances in the last 4 years, with one of those missed appearances coming as the result of a tiebreaker. Although the draft order is randomly selected every season, I've managed to pull one of the last 4 picks seemingly every year. This season was no different as I got pick #10 out of 12. Here's how the squad turned out. Feel free to leave comments and thoughts below.
QB - Jay Cutler
RB - Clinton Portis, Joseph Addai, Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall, Donald Brown, Ladell Betts, Brandon Jackson, Rashad Jennings
WR - Calvin Johnson, Lance Moore, Percy Harvin, Earl Bennett
TE - Dallas Clark
D/ST - Packers
K - Garrett Hartley (yea I know he's suspended. Mistake by me)
QB - Jay Cutler
RB - Clinton Portis, Joseph Addai, Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall, Donald Brown, Ladell Betts, Brandon Jackson, Rashad Jennings
WR - Calvin Johnson, Lance Moore, Percy Harvin, Earl Bennett
TE - Dallas Clark
D/ST - Packers
K - Garrett Hartley (yea I know he's suspended. Mistake by me)
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
NFL Team Predictions
Taking a look at the Vegas projections, there are a few discrepancies between the expert prognostications and what I think is going to happen. As we all know, these guys are right more often than not, but they also factor in public perception when creating these betting lines. The goal is obviously to get equal action on both sides, not necessarily to predict the outcome correctly. Here are my best guesses for teams that will finish at least 1.5 games either above or below the preseason win projection. At the end of the regular season I'll readdress these predictions.
Better than Projected
1) San Diego Chargers (10) - This seems like the best bet on the board to me. The division is terrible. The defense should be vastly improved with the return of Shawne Merriman. Plus, it is no longer being coordinated (or should I say uncoordinated) by Ted Cottrell. LBs coach Ron Rivera, who ran the Bears defense from '04-'06, takes over this season. Those final 2 years, the Bears were ranked 2nd and 5th in total defense, and reached the Super Bowl in '06. Looking at the schedule, I say they conservatively go 5-1 in the division and 4-0 against Cincy, Miami, Cleveland, and Washington. That means in order to hit 12 wins they just need to go 3-3 against the remaining schedule (Bal, @Pit, @NYG, Phi, @Dal, and @Ten). The only thing that worries me is the ever present Norv Turner factor...
2) Chicago Bears (8.5) - You've got to be kidding me that the Bears are only projected for that many wins. Urlacher is back healthy after battling neck and back injuries the past 2 preseasons, and Rod Marinelli has been imported to get the D Line back in shape. The secondary does concern me a little bit with Nate Vasher looking like a shell of his former self and Peanut Tillman hobbled by a back injury. This is after the Bears ranked 30th in pass defense with a healthy Tillman and Vasher last year. But, I put that stat directly on the D-line which generated only 28 sacks all year, ranking T-22 last year (Alex Brown led the team with 6). The defense will be fine, and you upgrade from Orton to Cutler at QB. And after all those negative stats from last year the Bears still went 9-7.
3) Green Bay Packers (9) -Peter King says the NFC North is the new NFL power division, and I have to say I agree with him. If you've seen the Packers this preseason, their offense has been the best thing this side of a Saints vs Raiders game. I don't think the first team offense has been forced to punt yet in three games. Bringing in Dom Capers to run the defense has to improve what was the NFL's 22nd ranked scoring defense last year. The switch from the 4-3 to a 3-4 could be tricky, but the Pack have the personnel up front to get it done. The D should perform more like it did 2 years ago and this team wins 10 easily, and most likely 11. I predict that the 2 Bears-Packers games this year could be some of the best of the season.
4) New Orleans Saints (9) - If you checked out that boxscore link above, or saw any highlights, or have watched the NFL the past 3 years, you know this New Orleans team can put up points with any team in the league. Despite stating before the Raiders game that the first team offense was going to play into the 3rd quarter, Sean Payton sat them just 16 minutes into the game. He probably realized that playing the equivalent of a AA team wasn't providing anything positive for his squad. With Marques Colston not battling nagging injuries this preseason, I think this will be an explosive offense on the order of the '07 Patriots, '04 Colts, and '98 Vikings. And you heard it here first, Brees breaks Marino's passing yardage record this year. With the Rams and Bucs going through rebuilding periods, and the Panthers worse than people think, I think the Saints waltz to a division crown and a top 2 seed in the NFC playoffs.
Sleeper - St. Louis Rams (5.5) - I just think this team is better than people think. Recent history has shown that teams that draft an OL high show great improvement. Think last year's Dolphins with Jake Long, and the '07 Browns with Joe Thomas. Well not only did the Rams select OT Jason Smith from Baylor #2 overall (the non-psycho OT drafted in the top 6), but they brought in Steve Spagnuolo as head coach. Do we really think they're finishing 28th and 30th, respectively, in total and scoring defense again? I don't think they challenge for a playoff spot, but they will hover around .500.
Worse than Projected
1) Denver Broncos (6.5) - Let's just say I don't like the mental state of this team. This team went 8-8 last year, and downgraded at QB. Orton is no Sage Rosenfels, but he's no Jay Cutler either. Throw in Brandon Marshall's hissy fits between various off field incidents and the side of the ball that was actually good last year has taken a significant step back. I think Josh McDaniels will eventually succeed as a head coach, but it ain't gonna be this year. Throw in matchups with the NFC East and 5 wins seems about right.
2) Washington Redskins (8) - And the beat goes on the Redskins. Another offseason of big free agent signings that will lead to disappointment on the field. At least Dan Snyder was smart enough to continue throwing away draft picks like he has the past few years. I'm actually one of the few people who likes Jason Campbell as a QB. I have ever since he was at Auburn. Do you think the fact that he's throwing to receivers that are shorter than the DB's covering them could have something to do with his inconsistent play? In the rough and tumble NFC East, one of the teams has to finish under .500 (despite matchups against the AFC West). My bet is old DC.
3) Atlanta Falcons (8.5) - The Falcons had the easiest schedule in the NFL last year and then promptly lost to a team that many people said was potentially the worst team to EVER make the playoffs. I think Turner gets dinged up this year after being a feature back for the first time since his days at NIU. Matt Ryan looks like the real deal, and the acquisition of Tony Gonzalez you'd think would help the passing game. However, Tony G is 33 and going into his 14th year in the league. How much longer can he put up 1,000 yard seasons? I don't think they're going to be a disaster, but I think they luck will start swinging the other way this year and 7-9 sounds about right.
4) Oakland Raiders (6) - The only thing that makes me hesitate on this prediction is that the Raiders would have to finish with 4 or fewer wins to make it correct. I have absolutely no faith in Tom Cable, and even less in JaMarcus Russell. The thing that scares me is that I have to think Cable is at least smart enough to switch to Jeff Garcia after the team is 1-6. With McFadden, Fargas, and Bush in the backfield, plus Garcia running the show, you gotta think they finish 4-5 right? Say what you will about Garcia, but the guy doesn't lose you games like Russell will. In fact, we're calling an audible on this pick.
4b) Buffalo Bills (7.5) - If T.O. couldn't catch balls thrown by Romo in relatively nice weather in Dallas, how's he gonna catch passes from Trent Edwards in Buffalo when it's 20 degrees outside? This experiment can only end poorly.
Sleeper - Minnesota Vikings (9.5) - I don't think 3 teams from the NFC North are making the playoffs, and I'm guessing the one with the 40 year old QB will be the one that misses out. Favre's career record in domes is pedestrian at best, and they've got to travel to Green Bay Nov. 1 and Chicago Dec. 28. Probably not gonna be toasty warm either of those days, and we all remember the NFC Championship game 2 years ago in frigid weather when Favre was outplayed by Eli Manning of all people. Add that to the 2-5 finish to the Jets season last year, when Favre was injured, and the rumors he has a cracked rib already has this year, and there's no way he's "Brett Favre" for 16 games. PS Check out this article that compares Favre to prominent politician from a few years back.
Better than Projected
1) San Diego Chargers (10) - This seems like the best bet on the board to me. The division is terrible. The defense should be vastly improved with the return of Shawne Merriman. Plus, it is no longer being coordinated (or should I say uncoordinated) by Ted Cottrell. LBs coach Ron Rivera, who ran the Bears defense from '04-'06, takes over this season. Those final 2 years, the Bears were ranked 2nd and 5th in total defense, and reached the Super Bowl in '06. Looking at the schedule, I say they conservatively go 5-1 in the division and 4-0 against Cincy, Miami, Cleveland, and Washington. That means in order to hit 12 wins they just need to go 3-3 against the remaining schedule (Bal, @Pit, @NYG, Phi, @Dal, and @Ten). The only thing that worries me is the ever present Norv Turner factor...
2) Chicago Bears (8.5) - You've got to be kidding me that the Bears are only projected for that many wins. Urlacher is back healthy after battling neck and back injuries the past 2 preseasons, and Rod Marinelli has been imported to get the D Line back in shape. The secondary does concern me a little bit with Nate Vasher looking like a shell of his former self and Peanut Tillman hobbled by a back injury. This is after the Bears ranked 30th in pass defense with a healthy Tillman and Vasher last year. But, I put that stat directly on the D-line which generated only 28 sacks all year, ranking T-22 last year (Alex Brown led the team with 6). The defense will be fine, and you upgrade from Orton to Cutler at QB. And after all those negative stats from last year the Bears still went 9-7.
3) Green Bay Packers (9) -Peter King says the NFC North is the new NFL power division, and I have to say I agree with him. If you've seen the Packers this preseason, their offense has been the best thing this side of a Saints vs Raiders game. I don't think the first team offense has been forced to punt yet in three games. Bringing in Dom Capers to run the defense has to improve what was the NFL's 22nd ranked scoring defense last year. The switch from the 4-3 to a 3-4 could be tricky, but the Pack have the personnel up front to get it done. The D should perform more like it did 2 years ago and this team wins 10 easily, and most likely 11. I predict that the 2 Bears-Packers games this year could be some of the best of the season.
4) New Orleans Saints (9) - If you checked out that boxscore link above, or saw any highlights, or have watched the NFL the past 3 years, you know this New Orleans team can put up points with any team in the league. Despite stating before the Raiders game that the first team offense was going to play into the 3rd quarter, Sean Payton sat them just 16 minutes into the game. He probably realized that playing the equivalent of a AA team wasn't providing anything positive for his squad. With Marques Colston not battling nagging injuries this preseason, I think this will be an explosive offense on the order of the '07 Patriots, '04 Colts, and '98 Vikings. And you heard it here first, Brees breaks Marino's passing yardage record this year. With the Rams and Bucs going through rebuilding periods, and the Panthers worse than people think, I think the Saints waltz to a division crown and a top 2 seed in the NFC playoffs.
Sleeper - St. Louis Rams (5.5) - I just think this team is better than people think. Recent history has shown that teams that draft an OL high show great improvement. Think last year's Dolphins with Jake Long, and the '07 Browns with Joe Thomas. Well not only did the Rams select OT Jason Smith from Baylor #2 overall (the non-psycho OT drafted in the top 6), but they brought in Steve Spagnuolo as head coach. Do we really think they're finishing 28th and 30th, respectively, in total and scoring defense again? I don't think they challenge for a playoff spot, but they will hover around .500.
Worse than Projected
1) Denver Broncos (6.5) - Let's just say I don't like the mental state of this team. This team went 8-8 last year, and downgraded at QB. Orton is no Sage Rosenfels, but he's no Jay Cutler either. Throw in Brandon Marshall's hissy fits between various off field incidents and the side of the ball that was actually good last year has taken a significant step back. I think Josh McDaniels will eventually succeed as a head coach, but it ain't gonna be this year. Throw in matchups with the NFC East and 5 wins seems about right.
2) Washington Redskins (8) - And the beat goes on the Redskins. Another offseason of big free agent signings that will lead to disappointment on the field. At least Dan Snyder was smart enough to continue throwing away draft picks like he has the past few years. I'm actually one of the few people who likes Jason Campbell as a QB. I have ever since he was at Auburn. Do you think the fact that he's throwing to receivers that are shorter than the DB's covering them could have something to do with his inconsistent play? In the rough and tumble NFC East, one of the teams has to finish under .500 (despite matchups against the AFC West). My bet is old DC.
3) Atlanta Falcons (8.5) - The Falcons had the easiest schedule in the NFL last year and then promptly lost to a team that many people said was potentially the worst team to EVER make the playoffs. I think Turner gets dinged up this year after being a feature back for the first time since his days at NIU. Matt Ryan looks like the real deal, and the acquisition of Tony Gonzalez you'd think would help the passing game. However, Tony G is 33 and going into his 14th year in the league. How much longer can he put up 1,000 yard seasons? I don't think they're going to be a disaster, but I think they luck will start swinging the other way this year and 7-9 sounds about right.
4) Oakland Raiders (6) - The only thing that makes me hesitate on this prediction is that the Raiders would have to finish with 4 or fewer wins to make it correct. I have absolutely no faith in Tom Cable, and even less in JaMarcus Russell. The thing that scares me is that I have to think Cable is at least smart enough to switch to Jeff Garcia after the team is 1-6. With McFadden, Fargas, and Bush in the backfield, plus Garcia running the show, you gotta think they finish 4-5 right? Say what you will about Garcia, but the guy doesn't lose you games like Russell will. In fact, we're calling an audible on this pick.
4b) Buffalo Bills (7.5) - If T.O. couldn't catch balls thrown by Romo in relatively nice weather in Dallas, how's he gonna catch passes from Trent Edwards in Buffalo when it's 20 degrees outside? This experiment can only end poorly.
Sleeper - Minnesota Vikings (9.5) - I don't think 3 teams from the NFC North are making the playoffs, and I'm guessing the one with the 40 year old QB will be the one that misses out. Favre's career record in domes is pedestrian at best, and they've got to travel to Green Bay Nov. 1 and Chicago Dec. 28. Probably not gonna be toasty warm either of those days, and we all remember the NFC Championship game 2 years ago in frigid weather when Favre was outplayed by Eli Manning of all people. Add that to the 2-5 finish to the Jets season last year, when Favre was injured, and the rumors he has a cracked rib already has this year, and there's no way he's "Brett Favre" for 16 games. PS Check out this article that compares Favre to prominent politician from a few years back.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
The Warmup Pitch
For my first post, I want to give a little introduction to this site. My goal is to express my thoughts on a wide range of topics in the sports world. In addition to the actual play on the field, I intend to touch on fantasy sports, Vegas lines, and game strategies. Any predictions I make will be permanent on the interwebs, and I'll keep a running score on the sidebar so everyone knows when you should listen to me, and when I should be ignored. There will be a few regular columns that will appear with each season. Some I've already conceived, others will be developed as I go along. Hopefully everyone will find some enjoyment in my assorted ramblings.
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