NFL Team Predictions

Taking a look at the Vegas projections, there are a few discrepancies between the expert prognostications and what I think is going to happen. As we all know, these guys are right more often than not, but they also factor in public perception when creating these betting lines. The goal is obviously to get equal action on both sides, not necessarily to predict the outcome correctly. Here are my best guesses for teams that will finish at least 1.5 games either above or below the preseason win projection. At the end of the regular season I'll readdress these predictions.

Better than Projected
1) San Diego Chargers (10) - This seems like the best bet on the board to me. The division is terrible. The defense should be vastly improved with the return of Shawne Merriman. Plus, it is no longer being coordinated (or should I say uncoordinated) by Ted Cottrell. LBs coach Ron Rivera, who ran the Bears defense from '04-'06, takes over this season. Those final 2 years, the Bears were ranked 2nd and 5th in total defense, and reached the Super Bowl in '06. Looking at the schedule, I say they conservatively go 5-1 in the division and 4-0 against Cincy, Miami, Cleveland, and Washington. That means in order to hit 12 wins they just need to go 3-3 against the remaining schedule (Bal, @Pit, @NYG, Phi, @Dal, and @Ten). The only thing that worries me is the ever present Norv Turner factor...

2) Chicago Bears (8.5) - You've got to be kidding me that the Bears are only projected for that many wins. Urlacher is back healthy after battling neck and back injuries the past 2 preseasons, and Rod Marinelli has been imported to get the D Line back in shape. The secondary does concern me a little bit with Nate Vasher looking like a shell of his former self and Peanut Tillman hobbled by a back injury. This is after the Bears ranked 30th in pass defense with a healthy Tillman and Vasher last year. But, I put that stat directly on the D-line which generated only 28 sacks all year, ranking T-22 last year (Alex Brown led the team with 6). The defense will be fine, and you upgrade from Orton to Cutler at QB. And after all those negative stats from last year the Bears still went 9-7.

3) Green Bay Packers (9) -Peter King says the NFC North is the new NFL power division, and I have to say I agree with him. If you've seen the Packers this preseason, their offense has been the best thing this side of a Saints vs Raiders game. I don't think the first team offense has been forced to punt yet in three games. Bringing in Dom Capers to run the defense has to improve what was the NFL's 22nd ranked scoring defense last year. The switch from the 4-3 to a 3-4 could be tricky, but the Pack have the personnel up front to get it done. The D should perform more like it did 2 years ago and this team wins 10 easily, and most likely 11. I predict that the 2 Bears-Packers games this year could be some of the best of the season.

4) New Orleans Saints (9) - If you checked out that boxscore link above, or saw any highlights, or have watched the NFL the past 3 years, you know this New Orleans team can put up points with any team in the league. Despite stating before the Raiders game that the first team offense was going to play into the 3rd quarter, Sean Payton sat them just 16 minutes into the game. He probably realized that playing the equivalent of a AA team wasn't providing anything positive for his squad. With Marques Colston not battling nagging injuries this preseason, I think this will be an explosive offense on the order of the '07 Patriots, '04 Colts, and '98 Vikings. And you heard it here first, Brees breaks Marino's passing yardage record this year. With the Rams and Bucs going through rebuilding periods, and the Panthers worse than people think, I think the Saints waltz to a division crown and a top 2 seed in the NFC playoffs.

Sleeper - St. Louis Rams (5.5) - I just think this team is better than people think. Recent history has shown that teams that draft an OL high show great improvement. Think last year's Dolphins with Jake Long, and the '07 Browns with Joe Thomas. Well not only did the Rams select OT Jason Smith from Baylor #2 overall (the non-psycho OT drafted in the top 6), but they brought in Steve Spagnuolo as head coach. Do we really think they're finishing 28th and 30th, respectively, in total and scoring defense again? I don't think they challenge for a playoff spot, but they will hover around .500.

Worse than Projected
1) Denver Broncos (6.5) - Let's just say I don't like the mental state of this team. This team went 8-8 last year, and downgraded at QB. Orton is no Sage Rosenfels, but he's no Jay Cutler either. Throw in Brandon Marshall's hissy fits between various off field incidents and the side of the ball that was actually good last year has taken a significant step back. I think Josh McDaniels will eventually succeed as a head coach, but it ain't gonna be this year. Throw in matchups with the NFC East and 5 wins seems about right.

2) Washington Redskins (8) - And the beat goes on the Redskins. Another offseason of big free agent signings that will lead to disappointment on the field. At least Dan Snyder was smart enough to continue throwing away draft picks like he has the past few years. I'm actually one of the few people who likes Jason Campbell as a QB. I have ever since he was at Auburn. Do you think the fact that he's throwing to receivers that are shorter than the DB's covering them could have something to do with his inconsistent play? In the rough and tumble NFC East, one of the teams has to finish under .500 (despite matchups against the AFC West). My bet is old DC.

3) Atlanta Falcons (8.5) - The Falcons had the easiest schedule in the NFL last year and then promptly lost to a team that many people said was potentially the worst team to EVER make the playoffs. I think Turner gets dinged up this year after being a feature back for the first time since his days at NIU. Matt Ryan looks like the real deal, and the acquisition of Tony Gonzalez you'd think would help the passing game. However, Tony G is 33 and going into his 14th year in the league. How much longer can he put up 1,000 yard seasons? I don't think they're going to be a disaster, but I think they luck will start swinging the other way this year and 7-9 sounds about right.

4) Oakland Raiders (6) - The only thing that makes me hesitate on this prediction is that the Raiders would have to finish with 4 or fewer wins to make it correct. I have absolutely no faith in Tom Cable, and even less in JaMarcus Russell. The thing that scares me is that I have to think Cable is at least smart enough to switch to Jeff Garcia after the team is 1-6. With McFadden, Fargas, and Bush in the backfield, plus Garcia running the show, you gotta think they finish 4-5 right? Say what you will about Garcia, but the guy doesn't lose you games like Russell will. In fact, we're calling an audible on this pick.

4b) Buffalo Bills (7.5) - If T.O. couldn't catch balls thrown by Romo in relatively nice weather in Dallas, how's he gonna catch passes from Trent Edwards in Buffalo when it's 20 degrees outside? This experiment can only end poorly.

Sleeper - Minnesota Vikings (9.5) - I don't think 3 teams from the NFC North are making the playoffs, and I'm guessing the one with the 40 year old QB will be the one that misses out. Favre's career record in domes is pedestrian at best, and they've got to travel to Green Bay Nov. 1 and Chicago Dec. 28. Probably not gonna be toasty warm either of those days, and we all remember the NFC Championship game 2 years ago in frigid weather when Favre was outplayed by Eli Manning of all people. Add that to the 2-5 finish to the Jets season last year, when Favre was injured, and the rumors he has a cracked rib already has this year, and there's no way he's "Brett Favre" for 16 games. PS Check out this article that compares Favre to prominent politician from a few years back.