NFL Award Predictions

As promised yesterday, I'm back this morning to put up my award predictions for the NFL season. Every analyst on tv and internet is doing it, so why not me? Unlike all those people though, at the end of the season I'll revisit these predictions and grade myself. It'll be great when I can point out to all 3 of my readers "See, I told you so!"

MVP - Philip Rivers - As I detailed in my team preview, the Chargers can sleepwalk to 12 wins. Rivers had the best QB rating in the league last year, and has the exact same career QB rating as that fella chucking the ball in New England. The only thing holding him back has been team success. Granted, Norv Turner is still the coach, so falling short of expectations is a very real possibility for this Chargers team. I expect LaDainian Tomlinson to have a rebound year, but he won't be the same RB from 2-3 years ago. As a result, Rivers will be the ring leader of the offense for a team that should run away with the division.

Coach of the Year - Lovie Smith - The headmaster in Chicago is taking over the defensive playcalling this year for the first time since coming to the Windy City. With Bob Babich coordinating the defense the past two years, the Bears D has been medicocre at best. I think we can safely say that firing Ron Rivera two years ago after the Super Bowl and going with a guy who had 0 years of experience coordinating defense at any level was a failed experiment. While Babich may retain the title of coordinator, make no mistake that Lovie is the one running this unit. Expect a big turnaround. Couple that with an offense that appears to finally be capable of making some plays and a successful season is almost a given.

Offensive POY - Drew Brees - Referring back to the team preview again, I made the claim that Drew Brees will break Dan Marino's season passing yardage record of 5,084 yards set in 1984. If that actually happens, how does he not win Offensive POY? I can't make a bold prediction like that and then back off. I really believe this New Orleans offense is going to be one of the best ever, and the whole system runs through Brees. This will be the 4th season he's operated in Sean Payton's offense and it will be running like a well oiled machine.

Defensive POY - DeMarcus Ware - Full disclosure, I was going to choose Troy Polamalu for this position, but after seeing him crumple under that pile and finding out he will be out 3-6 weeks, I can't pick him for a season award. As a result, I'm going out on a limb, like two-thirds of the other experts, and choosing the guy who had 19.5 sacks last year. There's nothing I can say that you can't read anywhere else so I'm moving along.

Offensive Rookie - Percy Harvin - Everything I hear about Harvin is that the Vikings kept him under wraps for the entire preseason, not wanting to tip their hand too much about how he's going to be used. This guy is going to line up all over the field on offense, and will occaisionally be returning punts and kicks. Too many people are being blinded by how well Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco did last year and picking Mark Sanchez as the rookie of the year. Those guys were the first rookie QBs to be competent since Dan Marino. I don't see lightning striking again this year. Harvin will give the Vikings something that no other team can replicate in practice during the week, and it will show up on the field on Sundays.

Defensive Rookie - Brian Orakpo - This choice is partially influenced by Madden 2010, in which Orakpo is listed as an 74 rated OLB. However, as I noticed once I moved him to DE, his rating jumps up to 85. Having Haynesworth in the middle of that D line requiring a double team will allow the other players alongside him to go one-on-one. Orakpo was a force for a Texas team that I thought was the best in the country last year (and will be this year as well). I trust that Greg Blache will dial up some schemes that will move Orakpo around and put him in different positions as a down lineman and a stand up rusher; similar to how the Cowboys use DeMarcus Ware. I think Orakpo gets in the neighborhood of 10 sacks.